We looked at the British Pound on Monday and said a large profit opportunity was coming from a short position as the bears take control and the set up is coming to fruition and an advance warning of a down turn is just about to be confirmed.
The currency is clearly over bought.
Net traders positions realized by the CFTC show that speculative British Pound long positions are at record high.
From past experience there is normally a large break to the downside from such over bought levels and this time should be no different.
The charts show the pound at new highs and as we said in our previous report you don’t just sell and hope – wait for confirmation, of waning price momentum via the stochastic and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to confirm price weakness.
If you pull up a good free chart service such as futuresource.com you will be able to check these indicators, so lets look at them.
Watch and Act on Waning Momentum
RSI – The RSI is rising and as approaching previous highs seen in December 2006 which peaked at 80 (we are currently at 78.83) the RSI line is rising wait for it to turn down.
At the same time keep an eye on the stochastic.
The stochastic is already weakening and both lines down will indicate firm bearish divergence.
When you have both these indicators pointing firmly down the bears should then take control and the target initial target will be the 2.0000 level then 1.9700 (mid and lower Bollinger band)
At present you have a consensus that the British Pound is strongly bullish and unlikely to fall but history shows that at such over bought levels the currency will not be able to move much higher without a correction.
The difficult bit is timing, keep your eye on the stochastic and RSI, to give advance warning of a break to the downside.
The scenario is not yet complete, but could occur anytime between now and the weekend so be alert.
This is a good low risk – high reward trade and if entered the chart high is the obvious stop level. The Pound has had a great run and is still long term bullish but from a short term perspective a shake out of speculative longs will occur and this is the opportunity that is presenting itself now.
By: Kelly Price
About the Author:
The currency is clearly over bought.
Net traders positions realized by the CFTC show that speculative British Pound long positions are at record high.
From past experience there is normally a large break to the downside from such over bought levels and this time should be no different.
The charts show the pound at new highs and as we said in our previous report you don’t just sell and hope – wait for confirmation, of waning price momentum via the stochastic and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to confirm price weakness.
If you pull up a good free chart service such as futuresource.com you will be able to check these indicators, so lets look at them.
Watch and Act on Waning Momentum
RSI – The RSI is rising and as approaching previous highs seen in December 2006 which peaked at 80 (we are currently at 78.83) the RSI line is rising wait for it to turn down.
At the same time keep an eye on the stochastic.
The stochastic is already weakening and both lines down will indicate firm bearish divergence.
When you have both these indicators pointing firmly down the bears should then take control and the target initial target will be the 2.0000 level then 1.9700 (mid and lower Bollinger band)
At present you have a consensus that the British Pound is strongly bullish and unlikely to fall but history shows that at such over bought levels the currency will not be able to move much higher without a correction.
The difficult bit is timing, keep your eye on the stochastic and RSI, to give advance warning of a break to the downside.
The scenario is not yet complete, but could occur anytime between now and the weekend so be alert.
This is a good low risk – high reward trade and if entered the chart high is the obvious stop level. The Pound has had a great run and is still long term bullish but from a short term perspective a shake out of speculative longs will occur and this is the opportunity that is presenting itself now.
By: Kelly Price
About the Author:
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